Modelling the Future Impact of Freight Transport on the Environment

This paper presents the results of research aiming to forecast the course of business-as-usual (BAU) trends in logistics and related environmental impacts within the UK. A series of seven focus group discussions with supply chain experts has resulted in the identification of the key logistics trends likely to affect the supply chains in the future. A spreadsheet model has been developed which simulates the relationship between economic growth and a series of freight transport-related externalities, including CO2 emissions, air pollution, noise and congestion and attaches the monetary values to them. The total external costs of road freight transport in the UK have been estimated at £7.2 billion. Furthermore, the taxes paid by the HGV-users in Britain should increase by around 10 per cent to internalise the externalities associated with air pollution, noise, accidents and damage to the infrastructure caused by the lorry transport. However, an increase by as much as 79 per cent would be needed to fully cover all the externalities, including congestion, related to the HGV traffic.